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Abstract The proton radiation belt contains high fluxes of adiabatically trapped protons varying in energy from ∼one to hundreds of megaelectron volts (MeV). At large radial distances, magnetospheric field lines become stretched on the nightside of Earth and exhibit a small radius of curvatureR_Cnear the equator. This leads protons to undergo field line curvature (FLC) scattering, whereby changes to the first adiabatic invariant accumulate as field strength becomes nonuniform across a gyroorbit. The outer boundary of the proton belt at a given energy corresponds to the range of magneticLshell over which this transition to nonadiabatic motion takes place, and is sensitive to the occurrence of geomagnetic storms. In this work, we first find expressions for nightside equatorialR_Cand field strengthB_eas functions of Dst andL* to fit the TS04 field model. We then apply the Tu et al. (2014,https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ja019864) condition for nonadiabatic onset to solve the outer boundaryL*, and refine our expression forR_Cto achieve agreement with Van Allen Probes observations of 1–50 MeV proton flux over the 2014–2018 era. Finally, we implement this nonadiabatic onset condition into the British Antarctic Survey proton belt model (BAS‐PRO) to solve the temporal evolution of proton fluxes atL ≤ 4. Compared with observations, BAS‐PRO reproduces storm losses due to FLC scattering, but there is a discrepancy in mid‐2017 that suggests a ∼5 MeV proton source not accounted for. Our work sheds light on outer zone proton belt variability at 1–10 MeV and demonstrates a useful tool for real‐time forecasting.